We should all know, at least those of us with half a brain, that global warming is a hoax designed to create a perceived need for government. The agenda of global warming alarmists has never been about Mother Earth but rather how to take from those of us who produce and redistribute to life's losers. The following is just more proof that Al Gore and the rest of his liberal kook aid drinking kooks are full of it. The following is from http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/ Tropical cyclone (TC) activity worldwide has completely and utterly collapsed during the past 2 to 3 years with TC energy levels sinking to levels not seen since the late 1970s. This should not be a surprise to scientists since the natural variability in climate dominates any detectable or perceived global warming impact when it comes to measuring yearly integrated tropical cyclone activity. With the continuation (persistence) of colder Pacific tropical sea-surface temperatures associated with the effects of La Nina, the upcoming 2009 Atlantic hurricane season should be above average, as we saw in 2008. Nevertheless, since the Atlantic only makes up 10-15% of overall global TC activity each year (climatological average during the past 30 years), continued Northern Hemispheric and global TC inactivity as a whole likely will continue. As previously reported here and here at Climate Audit, and chronicled at my Florida State Global Hurricane Update page, both Northern Hemisphere and overall Global hurricane activity has continued to sink to levels not seen since the 1970s. Even more astounding, when the Southern Hemisphere hurricane data is analyzed to create a global value, we see that Global Hurricane Energy has sunk to 30-year lows, at the least. Since hurricane intensity and detection data is problematic as one goes back in time, when reporting and observing practices were different than today, it is possible that we underestimated global hurricane energy during the 1970s. See notes at bottom to avoid terminology discombobulation. Using a well-accepted metric called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index or ACE for short (Bell and Chelliah 2006), which has been used by Klotzbach (2006) and Emanuel (2005) (PDI is analogous to ACE), and most recently by myself in Maue (2009), simple analysis shows that 24-month running sums of global ACE or hurricane energy have plummeted to levels not seen in 30 years. Why use 24-month running sums instead of simply yearly values? Since a primary driver of the Earth's climate from year to year is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) acts on time scales on the order of 2-7 years, and the fact that the bulk of the Southern Hemisphere hurricane season occurs from October - March, a reasonable interpretation of global hurricane activity requires a better metric than simply calendar year totals. The 24-month running sums is analogous to the idea of "what have you done for me lately". During the past 6 months, extending back to October of 2008 when the Southern Hemisphere tropical season was gearing up, global ACE had crashed due to two consecutive years of well-below average Northern Hemisphere hurricane activity. To avoid confusion, I am not specifically addressing the North Atlantic, which was above normal in 2008 (in terms of ACE), but the hemisphere (and or globe) as a whole. The North Atlantic only represents a 1/10 to 1/8 of global hurricane energy output on average but deservedly so demands disproportionate media attention due to the devastating societal impacts of recent major hurricane landfalls. Why the record low ACE? During the past 2 years +, the Earth's climate has cooled under the effects of a dramatic La Nina episode. The Pacific Ocean basin typically sees much weaker hurricanes that indeed have shorter lifecycles and therefore -- less ACE . Conversely, due to well-researched upper-atmospheric flow (e.g. vertical shear) configurations favorable to Atlantic hurricane development and intensification, La Nina falls tend to favor very active seasons in the Atlantic (word of warning for 2009). This offsetting relationship, high in the Atlantic and low in the Pacific, is a topic of discussion in my GRL paper, which will be a separate topic in a future posting. Thus, the Western North Pacific (typhoons) tropical activity was well below normal in 2007 and 2008 (see table). Same for the Eastern North Pacific. The Southern Hemisphere, which includes the southern Indian Ocean from the coast of Mozambique across Madagascar to the coast of Australia, into the South Pacific and Coral Sea, saw below normal activity as well in 2008. Through March 12, 2009, the Southern Hemisphere ACE is about half of what's expected in a normal year, with a multitude of very weak, short-lived hurricanes. All of these numbers tell a very simple story: just as there are active periods of hurricane activity around the globe, there are inactive periods, and we are currently experiencing one of the most impressive inactive periods, now for almost 3 years. Bottom Line Under global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase (on the order of a few percent), but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when. This science is very far from settled. Indeed, Al Gore has dropped the related slide in his PowerPoint (btw, is he addicted to the Teleprompter as well?) Many papers have suggested that these changes are already occurring especially in the strongest of hurricanes, e.g. this and that and here, due to warming sea-surface temperatures (the methodology and data issues with each of these papers has been discussed here at CA, and will be even more in the coming months). The notion that the overall global hurricane energy or ACE has collapsed does not contradict the above papers but provides an additional, perhaps less publicized piece of the puzzle. Indeed, the very strong interannual variability of global hurricane ACE (energy) highly correlated to ENSO, suggests that the role of tropical cyclones in climate is modulated very strongly by the big movers and shakers in large-scale, global climate. The perceptible (and perhaps measurable) impact of global warming on hurricanes in today's climate is arguably a pittance compared to the reorganization and modulation of hurricane formation locations and preferred tracks/intensification corridors dominated by ENSO (and other natural climate factors). Moreover, our understanding of the complicated role of hurricanes with and role in climate is nebulous to be charitable. We must increase our understanding of the current climate's hurricane activity. Background: During the summer and fall of 2007, as the Atlantic hurricane season failed to live up to the hyperbolic prognostications of the seasonal hurricane forecasters, I noticed that the rest of the Northern Hemisphere hurricane basins, which include the Western/Central/Eastern Pacific and Northern Indian Oceans, was on pace to produce the lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE since 1977. ACE is the convolution or combination of a storm's intensity and longevity. Put simply, a long-lived very powerful Category 3 hurricane may have more than 100 times the ACE of a weaker tropical storm that lasts for less than a day. Over a season or calendar year, all individual storm ACE is added up to produce the overall seasonal or yearly ACE. Detailed tables of previous monthly and yearly ACE are described below. The table does not include the Northern Indian Ocean, which can be deduced as the portion of the Northern Hemisphere total not included in the three major basins. Nevertheless, 2007 saw the lowest ACE since 1977. 2008 continued the dramatic downturn in hurricane energy or ACE. The following stacked bar chart demonstrates the highly variable, from year-to-year behavior of Northern Hemisphere (NH) ACE. The smaller inset line graph plots the raw data and trend (or lack thereof). Thus, during the past 60 years, with the data at hand, Northern Hemisphere ACE undergoes significant interannual variability but exhibits no significant statistical trend. So what to expect in 2009? Well, the last Northern Hemisphere storm was Typhoon Dolphin in middle December of 2008, and no ACE has been recorded so far. The Southern Hemisphere is below normal by just about any definition of storm activity (unless you have access to the Elias sports bureau statistic creativity department), and the season is quickly running out. With La Nina-like conditions in the Pacific, a persistence forecast of below average global cyclone activity seems like a very good bet. Now if only the Dow Jones index didn't correlate so well with the Global ACE lately... Notes: Hurricane is the term for Tropical Cyclone specific to the North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the Pacific Ocean from Hawaii eastward to the Mexican coast. Other names around the world include Typhoon, Cyclone, and Willy-Willy (Oz) but hurricane is used generically to avoid confusion. Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE: is easily calculated from best-track hurricane datasets, with the one-minute maximum sustained wind squared and summed during the tropical lifecycle of a tropical storm or hurricane. Global Infrared Satellite: Tropical Sectors Global Tropical Cyclone ACE through Mar 17, 2009 00z BASIN 2009 ACE CLIMO YEARLY ACE* NORMAL TO DATE % of NORMAL Northern Hemisphere 0 557 4 - North Atlantic 0 104 0 - Western Pacific0 280 3 - Eastern Pacific0 156 0 - Southern Hemisphere 79.33 229 142+ 56% * Climatological Values based upon 1982-2008 calendar year activity except for Southern Hemisphere. + Normal to date for Southern Hemisphere, 1981-2008 October-Februrary. Includes Southern Indian and Southern Pacific basins. V max is maximum sustained 1-minute wind (knots) throughout the tropical lifecycle of each TC Previous Basin Activity BASIN 2005 ACE 2006 ACE 2007 ACE 2008 ACE 1982-2008 AVERAGE Northern Hemisphere 655 576 383 408 557 North Atlantic 243 83 72 142 104 Western Pacific301 274 212 167 280 Eastern Pacific97 204 55 83 156 Southern Hemisphere* 285 182 191 164 229 * Southern Hemisphere peak TC activity occurs between October and April. Thus, 2008 values represent the period October 2007 - April 2008. Note: 1981-2008 March and April Southern Hemisphere ACE has averaged 84 with a standard deviation of 27, with a minimum of 47 in 1987 and maximum of 154 in 1992. Current Global TC Graphics Northern Hemisphere Hurricane Days & Global Major H Days -- 24 month running sum Excel Data File Global and NH TC Accumulated Cyclone ACE -- 24 month running sum Analysis shown in the figure depicts tropical cyclone energy continuously summed over 24-month periods from 1973 through 28, February 2009. The top green time series shows the evolution of global Accumluated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Global ACE is at historical low levels -- the lowest in 30-years. The Earth is experiencing a prolonged period of severely depressed cyclone activity. The Northern Hemisphere is responsible for 70% of global tropical cyclone ACE on average since 1973. Thus, it is no surprise that Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone activity is also at 30-year lows. MONTH/YEAR NH ACE SH ACE NH HDAYS [INTENSE *] SH HDAYS [INTENSE *] GLOBAL 24-MONTH RUNNING ACE NH 24-MONTH RUNNING ACE JAN06 5.45 20.75 0 3 1863.0 1408.1 FEB06 15.41 42.91 0 9.25 [2] 1851.3 1407.9 MAR06 0.58 61.63 0 13.25 [4.75] 1840.8 1407.1 APR06 10.33 36.14 2.25 [1.25] 5.5 [3.25] 1850.4 1381.1 MAY06 25.27 0 6.75 [2.75] 0 1836.1 1369.2 JUN06 4.17 0 0 0 1763.6 1296.7 JUL06 101.15 0 22.25 [8] 0 1820.8 1353.9 AUG06 150.91 0 28 [13] 0 1796.5 1329.6 SEP06 166.45 0 44.75 [14.25] 0 1702.8 1237.9 OCT06 47.27 10.71 11.75 [1.25] 2.75 [1] 1688.8 1214.1 NOV06 39.71 4.89 8.75 [3.5] 1 1677.5 1227.2 DEC06 25.20 27.29 8.5 6.75 [3.25] 1690.7 1231.2 JAN07 0 17.6 0 3.25 1669.9 1225.8 FEB07 0 71.4 0 16.75 [4.75] 1655.4 1225.8 MAR07 0.13 46.3 0 10 [2.75] 1617.9 1222.2 APR07 8.0 12.7 2.25 2.5 [1.25] 1590.2 1217.5 MAY07 18.8 0.37 4 [2] 0 1606.2 1233.1 JUN07 21.7 0 3.5 [2] 0 1591.9 1218.8 JUL07 32.0 0 7 [2.25] 0 1522.0 1148.9 AUG07 108.3 0 21.75 [11.75] 0 1501.9 1128.8 SEP07 85.5 0 19.25 [4.75] 0 1363.2 990.1 OCT07 53.9 0 8.75 [4.25] 0 1317.1 944.6 NOV07 57.2 8.4 13.5 [3.25] 0.25 1344.1 982.5 DEC07 1.0275 15.6 0 2.5 [1] 1339.5 962.9 JAN08 0.3675 35.5 0 6.75 [1.75] 1349.2 957.8 FEB08 0 67.7 0 15 [5.25] 1374.0 957.8 MAR08 0 33.1 0 7.75 [2.5] 1344.9 957.3 APR08 15.59 3.33 5.5 0 1317.4 962.5 MAY08 45.6 0 10 [4.5] 0 1337.7 982.8 JUN08 20.1 0 5.25 0 1353.6 998.7 JUL08 81.14 0 20.75 [0.5] 0 1333.6 978.8 AUG08 49.5 0 10 [2.25] 0 1232.3 877.4 SEP08 130.45 0 26.75 [10.75] 0 1196.3 841.4 OCT08 42.085 4.645 9 [2.25] 0 1185.0 836.2 NOV08 16.0475 0.565 2.5 [1.25] 0 1157.0 812.5 DEC08 9.0825 16.25 2 3 [1.25] 1129.9 796.4 JAN09 0 10.1725 0 1.75 [0.25] 1122.4 796.4 FEB09 0 24.2925 0 4.5 [2] 1075.4 796.4 MAR09 0 23.405 0 4.75 [2.5] 1052.36 796.3 1979-2008 CLIMO - - - - 1570.4 1108.3 HDAYS are hurricane days [64 kts +]; Intense [96 kts+] or Category 3 and higher on the Saffir Simpson Scale 2009 Southern Hemisphere Operational Tracks Used in Table --> SH09_tracks 2008 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Year in Review Upon examination of all tropical cyclone activity in the basins throughout the Northern Hemisphere for the past 2 years, a remarkable downward trend in cyclone energy has continued and reached historic levels of inactivity. USA Today Article on Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Inactivity 2007 Record Hemispheric Tropical Cyclone Inactivity Links 2008 Tropical Conference Powerpoint 2008 AMS New Orleans TC Reanalysis Trends and Sizes PPT 2008 AMS New Orleans Powerpoint [Extra] My friends at the Higher Ground Ministries Climate Donkey Climate Audit Watts Up With That Blog ICECAP Northwest Pacific Floater MeteoSat Full Disk (Europe) Indian Ocean Full Disk (INDOEX) GOES Full Disk East West RAMMB/CIRA NOAA TCs Navy NRL TC Digital Typhoon Database National Hurricane Center Joint Typhoon Warning Center NOAA Geostationary Satellite Global Storm Tracks Global Weather Maps HWRF and GFDL Hurricane Model Maps Earth Moisture Animation Wikipedia 2007 Hurricane Season Wikipedia 2008 Hurricane Season This, my friends, is why liberals hate facts. Learn the truth at www.goldenpansy.com

 

With 2008 officially marking the death of investigative journalism in America, we are now forced to get our news from overseas.   According the Pravda, a paper once more in the tank for Marxism than the New York Times, the world is on the brink of entering another Ice Age.   Hold the phone; ice age. What the heck are you talking about? Don’t you mean global warming, the greatest science fiction hoax since Orwell penned 1984. Oh wait, 1984 is coming to fruition as our government seizes our property and usurps our rights.

As it turns out, there is no such thing as global warming. There never has been and never will be. Sure the earth goes in cycles, as does every other planet in our galaxy and probably in the universe for that matter.   We see temperatures go up, we see them go down. We see increased hurricane activity and different levels of arctic ice.   What we don’t see is any correlation between man and planet other than what the liberals and their Spielbergesque writers in the mainstream media can conjure up. 

We all know that liberals hate facts because the truth so often gets in the way of their wild imagination.   We know that throughout history the world has seen periods of time when ice covered masses such as Greenland were arable farmland.   We have seen other times when the sub tropics were covered in ice as wooly mammoths had their way with the liberal elite. 

According to a growing group of scientists the world is set to enter another Ice Age.   Didn’t Newsweek call this in 1979? That was before their pipedream of global warming; sort of like Obama being accepting of public funds before he was against it.   Ah yes, the wonderful world of liberalism where hypocrisy is a badge of honor.

Long term data indicates that the tilt of the earth, the shape of the orbit and the Precession of the Equinoxes have come into an alignment that gives rise to valid, not Al Gore like, concerns that earth is poised to plunge into an interglacial era, or ice age. 

The astronomical theory of ice age formation was first brought forth by mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842 and was adopted by Czech mathematician Milutin Milankovich to present his findings in the 20’s and 30’s. These facts, which run counter to liberal fiction, were published in  1976 by renowned scientist John Imbrie.

During this same period, junk science was brought forth by Carl Sagan to suggest that greenhouse gasses trapped in the earth’s atmosphere would not only prevent another ice age, but would lead to global warming.   Of course we know that there were some years with above average temperatures that have occurred since the 1970’s, but we also know that every year of the 21^st century has been colder than 1998, the baseline for the great global warming hoax. In fact, the snowpack in the northern hemisphere is the deepest since 1966 and the temperatures the coldest since 2001.

Of course the main flaw in the global warming theory is that it ignores temperature data from the previous million years while selectively utilizing data from a couple years in the 90’s that prove to be convenient.   In addition, the global warming lie conveniently forgets to interpret solar activity, which has a direct and proven correlation to temperature on Earth, as well as all of the other planets that, while lacking SUV’s, did have a similar spike in temperature a decade ago but are now plunging into an ice age.